During the week of March 23-29, 2026, Bulgarian Facebook feeds contained a wide variety of narratives and stories, including of a dramatic police raids against "bought votes" in Vratsa and Lom, sensational claims that Rumen Radev was preparing a "final assault" against an entrenched "mafia model," and urgent warnings of a "Brussels plot" to sabotage national sovereignty. Emojis of sirens and bombs signalled "extraordinary" revelations about secret AI schemes and "dead souls" in voter lists, while highly personal narratives—from a teacher’s endorsement of a former student to a mother’s plea for justice—replaced policy debate with raw emotional appeals. These were not isolated incidents but part of a coordinated digital ecosystem where the very legitimacy of state institutions was being systematically challenged.

Our research team at BROD, led by the GATE Institute, conducted a multidimensional analysis of last week’s public digital discourse. We analysed a sample dataset covering one week of public Facebook posts related to the Bulgarian elections, utilizing our in-house interdisciplinary methodology. Our analysis focuses strictly on the rhetorical structures and dissemination patterns of these messages, ensuring that no private user data was utilized. The was facilitated by the Information Environments Research (IER) group at GATE and the team’s prototype PODIA project. A tool which facilitates critical discourse analysis at scale.

While it is true that these findings represent a fragment of the information environment – given the subset of content which Meta allows researchers to download - we believe they demonstrate how these very specific narratives systematically exploit "cracks" in the institutional structure to replace rational policy discourse with an "analytical void," ultimately driving extreme societal polarization and eroding the public’s ability to make sense of the democratic process. A central and key aspect of the contemporary Bulgarian, and wider European, crisis of democracy.

What we looked at and how

Given that our research team has access to the Meta Content Library for research purposes, we examined public Facebook posts that were actively discussing the Bulgarian elections over a period of one week. The search was filtered by Bulgarian language content, downloadable public dataset, dates (March 23-29) and by a single keyword: избори (Elections). The resulting dataset for this period is >900 unique and cleaned posts.

Utilizing our proprietary analytical framework, we coded these posts to assess both the scale and potential harm scores of the narratives and to sort them into distinct narrative categories, including global geopolitics (Russia, the European Union, the USA and Donald Trump, and the Iran–Israel conflict), regional local issues, and highly personal emotional stories. We wanted to offer a general overview of the information landscape in this specific digital space.

Within these categories, we identified common manipulation tactics and logical fallacies, specifically looking for "high-susceptibility" tricks that are empirically designed to be harder for the average reader to detect as biased.

To maintain the highest ethical standards, our research does not name private individuals and utilizes anonymized examples to illustrate its findings. Our analysis is designed to focus on broad rhetorical patterns and dissemination trends rather than singling out or identifying individual social media users.

The main storylines in the feed: Election Cycle Narrative Analysis: March 23–29, 2026

The following analysis details the thematic constellation of narratives identified in the digital information environment during the final week of March 2026.

1. Geopolitics Everywhere: The Domestic Battlefield

Domestic election talk was systematically woven into global conflicts, framing the Bulgarian vote not just as a choice of leaders, but as a critical front in a larger battle between great powers.

• The EU and Sovereignty: "Brussels" is frequently cast as a source of national humiliation and betrayal. Complex international relations are reduced to the metaphor of "saluting Europe", with claims that Bulgarian sovereignty "melts with every 'yes'" given to the EU without independent thought.
• Russia and the "Hybrid War": High-stakes narratives characterize the election as a target of total Russian hybrid war. Moscow is said to have a $9 billion annual stake in the outcome to protect its gas revenue. The "ruZorob" archetype delegitimizes opponents as treasonous agents of a "Russian evil state". Utilizing "Z" symbolism, these narratives frame elites as "communists" weaponizing corruption for "hybrid extermination." This binary deepens societal fragmentation, dismissing rivals as "gangs" and dissenters as choosing a "system leading to quick death".
• USA/Trump as an Ideological Mirror: Donald Trump is used as a symbol of both geopolitical destabilization and a "Great American Patriot" leading a "party of common sense" against a Democratic "party of madness". This framing mirror’s Bulgarian narratives of "systemic sabotage" and "rigged processes." A connection to Hungary’s Victor Urban represents him as a similar ‘common sense” figure.
• Iran–Israel and Existential Fear: Global conflicts in the Middle East are used as existential metaphors to trigger survival instincts, with warnings that the world is on the "brink of collapse". Domestically, these conflicts are used to explain "galloping prices" for fuel and food.

What this framing does: It turns domestic politics into a high-stakes battlefield of great powers, amplifying a sense of national insecurity and pressuring voters to choose a "strong protector" rather than evaluating policy.

2. Fear, Anger, and Humiliation: Emotions Doing the Heavy Lifting

The emotional palette of the week was dominated by high-arousal sentiments designed to bypass rational analysis through "High-Susceptibility Fallacies."

• Fear of Chaos vs. Moral Outrage: Narratives often combined fear of national collapse with moral outrage. For example, the "Mafia Model" was described as a monstrosity that "killed thousands of children". This emotional moralizing replaces policy debate with raw sentiment.
• Humiliation by Elites: A recurring theme is the humiliation of the "common man" by "liberal, Sofia-based castes" or "Soroists" who allegedly "make people into idiots".
• Patterns of Traction: Content that utilized arresting visuals (red sirens, bomb emojis) and personal anecdotes—such as a mother’s plea for justice or a teacher’s endorsement of a former student—gained significantly more traction and was shared more frequently as a form of Identity Expression than dry institutional reports.

3. Local Grievances, National Stakes

Regional issues were systematically framed as proof of systemic national failure or elite betrayal.

• Varna and Pazardzhik: Local healthcare failures, such as the "plaintive state" of hospitals in Varna, were characterized as the result of "political robbery" by the established model. In Pazardzhik, the decay of architectural heritage was linked directly to the "scent of money" and corrupt local-national alliances.
• Regional Case Study (Fakulteta): In a striking example of local-national crossover, residents of the Fakulteta neighborhood in Sofia were told that the trash piles and rats outside their schools were a direct result of "selling the future of their children" for a 50 BGN vote.
• Infrastructure as Sovereignty: In Dobrich, the local struggle against wind turbines was framed as a battle to protect "fertile land" from being sacrificed to "European directives".

4. Election Talk: Trust, Fraud, and "The System"

The framing of the electoral process itself centered on a deep Crisis of Authority and the delegitimization of state institutions.

• The "Rigged System": Narratives portrayed the elections as a "theatre for suckers" or a "criminal dictatorship". Allegations of "dead souls" in voter lists and "bought commissions" were used to argue that the result was already decided.
• Weaponized Institutions: The Ministry of Interior and the Prosecution were frequently described as partisan "clubs" or "bats" used to hit the "inconvenient".
• Calls to Action vs. Cynicism: While some actors used this distrust to call for radicalization or a "final assault" against the model, others fostered deep cynicism. Democracy was dismissed as a "reality format" where voters are just "sad extras" in a scenario written by shadow puppeteers.

Prominence of Apathy: The consensus in several highly shared posts was that "the government is nasty and cannot be trusted", leading to a "smoldering tension" that could either erupt into an "electoral wave" or sink into total public apathy.

Spotting the Tricks: A Citizen’s Decoder Ring

As part of our analysis, our team tracked recurring manipulation tactics and logical fallacies used across the digital landscape. These rhetorical "shortcuts" are designed to be highly persuasive by bypassing your rational brain and targeting your instincts. We categorize these as "High-Susceptibility Fallacies" because they are empirically harder for the average reader to detect as biased.

By recognizing these patterns, people can move from being passive consumers of information to active, empowered citizens.

Common Tactics Used in the Election Cycle

• Personal Anecdotes as Representative Proof
  • What it is: Using a single, emotional story about one person to "prove" a complex national issue, making it feel more true than statistical evidence.
  • Election Example: A post uses a teacher’s personal childhood memory of a candidate being a "disciplined student" as definitive proof that they are the best choice for Parliament today.

• Appeal to "Common Sense" (The "Everyone Knows" Trap)
  • What it is: Presenting a subjective political claim as a self-evident truth that "any normal person" would understand, which pressures you to agree without seeing evidence.
  • Election Example: Using phrases like "Bulgaria is not poor—it is robbed" or "everyone knows how the scheme works" to explain complex economic inflation.
• Slippery Slope Arguments
  • What it is: Claiming that one specific policy or decision today will inevitably lead to a total national catastrophe tomorrow, without explaining the logical steps in between.
  • Election Example: Arguing that a single agreement with "Brussels" regarding the Euro will automatically result in "national suicide" and citizens "dying of hunger".
• Existential Metaphors (The Rhetorical Bypass)
  • What it is: Replacing dry policy debate with dramatic, high-stakes imagery (like "monsters," "battles," or "the end of the world") to trigger your survival instincts.
  • Election Example: Describing an opposing political model as an "orc-led monstrosity" that has "killed thousands of children" to shut down rational discussion of their platform.
• False Cause / Correlation Fallacy
  • What it is: Linking two unrelated events—like a religious holiday and a political crowd—to imply that one caused the other or proves a "divine" momentum.
  • Election Example: Claiming that because a political tour occurred on a holy day, the "rising wave" of support is a sign of national and spiritual rebirth.
• Ad Hominem (Character Assassination)
  • What it is: Attacking the character, appearance, or intelligence of an opponent to discredit their message, rather than arguing against their actual ideas.
  • Election Example: Labeling rivals as "political eunuchs," "incompetents," or "puppets of Soros" to dismiss their arguments entirely.

Pro Tip: If a post uses siren emojis (🚨), bomb emojis (💣), or all-caps headings like "BOMB" or "SCANDAL," it is likely trying to "flood" your emotions so you don't stop to fact-check. When you feel a sudden surge of anger or fear, take a "second-thought" pause. Ask yourself: Is this giving me a specific policy, or just a dramatic story?

Digital Ripples: How the Stories Spread on Facebook

Our analysis revealed that information didn't just drift through Bulgarian Facebook feeds; it moved with the speed and intensity of a coordinated digital ecosystem, following three distinct patterns.

1. Emotion Outruns Information

During this week, the "share" button was most frequently triggered by high-arousal emotions like fear, anger, or moral pride. Posts featuring "BOMB" or "SCANDAL" headlines, such as the sensationalist language around narratives on Rumen Radev leaving the presidency to enter the political fray, captured far more attention than dry reports. While official institutions posted verified statistics—like the 44,000 Bulgarians who registered to vote from abroad—these procedural messages were often drowned out by highly personal, anecdotal stories. For example, a heart-wrenching plea for justice from the "mothers of victims" or a teacher’s nostalgic endorsement of a candidate felt more "real" to users, encouraging them to share the content as a way of expressing their own identity and values.

2. From Megaphones to Private Rooms

Narratives typically followed a "top-down" path, beginning at massive information hubs and then trickling into smaller, more isolated communities. Large pages like Kanal 3 (pro-intrigue) or BNews Bg acted as digital megaphones, seeding broad stories around narratives about "Brussels plots" or "Russian hybrid wars" to hundreds of thousands of followers. Once these stories gained traction, they moved into niche, monolingual groups—such as private communities for the Turkish-speaking minority—where they were used for targeted agitation. In these smaller "echo chambers," information becomes harder to cross-reference or challenge, creating a self-reinforcing loop where bias feels like a common-sense truth.

3. Real-World Lightning Rods

The digital conversation was not a steady stream but a series of explosive spikes triggered by real-world events. A legal opinion from the European Court regarding the eligibility of Andrey Gyurov acted as a lightning rod, causing an immediate surge in posts that framed the news as a "legal bomb" designed to sabotage the elections. Similarly, the arrival of the Annunciation religious holiday was quickly "re-packaged" by political groups to link their campaign tours to a sense of spiritual and national rebirth. Scandals like the "Petrohan case" provided a sudden burst of momentum for narratives about "systemic failure," which actors used to harvest a sharp growth in public distrust toward the government.

Why it matters

Understanding the narrative patterns identified in this analysis is crucial because they are designed to bypass rational thought and exploit the "cracks" in the democratic structure to undermine the legitimacy of the entire system. By recognizing these specific digital patterns, different segments of society can reclaim the public debate from a state of orchestrated chaos.

For Citizens: Building Resilience and Perspective

For the average voter, recognizing "High-Susceptibility Fallacies" is the first step in resisting manipulation. These tactics, such as using personal anecdotes as proof or making appeals to "common sense", are empirically harder to detect as biased because they mimic natural conversation.

• Keep Perspective: When a post claims that "everyone knows how the scheme works," it is often a rhetorical bypass used to avoid providing actual evidence.
• Resist Polarization: Understanding that much of what you see is designed to trigger identity motivation allows you to pause before sharing. Instead of asking "Does this make my side look good?", you can ask "Is this providing a policy or just an existential metaphor?".
• Constructive Talk: By spotting the "analytical void" where drama replaces data, citizens can steer conversations with others away from "Saviors" or "Monsters" and back toward institutional literacy.

For Journalists: Responsible Coverage and De-amplification

Journalists must be aware of their role as potential megaphones for sensationalism and systemic distrust.

• Avoid the "Bomb" Trap: Sensationalist headings such as "БОМБА" or "СКАНДАЛ" are constructed to create shock and urgency. Repeating these labels, even when debunking them, can amplify the likelihood of spread and manufacture false momentum.
• Expose Contradictions: High-traction stories often rely on legal and logical contradictions that assume a lack of public knowledge, such as claiming a sitting official is leading a party list when it is constitutionally impossible.
• Policy Translation: Journalists should aim to translate existential metaphors—like "national suicide" or "the Eye of Sauron"—back into concrete policy or legal terms to close the analytical void created by political actors.

For Educators and NGOs: Narrative and Fallacy Maps as Tools

Educators and NGOs can use the results of our analysis to move media literacy from abstract concepts to "snap-shot" intensifications found in real-world data.

• Workshop Activities: Show how the same event, like the "Petrohan case" or the "Gyurov case," is re-packaged into different "us vs. them" frames to serve specific interests.
• Teach "Detection Difficulty": Create exercises where participants must distinguish between legitimate policy critique and slippery slope arguments that claim a single international agreement will lead to total national collapse.
• Community Empowerment: In specialized settings, such as work with marginalized groups, the maps can be used to show how vulnerability is exploited. For example, showing how narratives target the "working poor" or specific ethnicities with fears of "starving children" or "rats" can help these communities recognize when they are being treated as "sad extras" in a pre-written script.

Closing note and what comes next

Limitations of This Analysis

It is important to note that this report is based on a one-week "snap-shot" of data (March 23–29, 2026) and focuses exclusively on publicly available content from Facebook. Also, we examined only the textual data from the posts themselves and no URLs for news outlets were opened. While the methodology captured both mainstream discourse and radicalized sentiment, it does not account for private interactions or trends occurring on encrypted messaging apps or other social media platforms. Additionally, because the unit of analysis is individual social media posts, the findings reflect a specific moment in time during a highly volatile political cycle. Finally, while the analytical framework is rigorous, certain weights are calibrated specifically for the Bulgarian political and linguistic context and may vary when applied to other national environments.

What Comes Next

Our team plans to continue monitoring throughout the entire election period to identify long-term shifts in narrative momentum and further "snap-shot" intensifications as polling day approaches. We will be conducting a comparative analysis across a broader range of political actors to determine which specific framings are most effective at converting digital sentiment into offline actionability. Furthermore, we are in the process of developing educational materials and workshops based on our narrative and fallacy maps while developing our cognitive attack ontology. These tools are designed to help citizens and educators recognize "Detection Difficulty" in real-time, moving the focus from identifying "fake news" to understanding the deep rhetorical structures that undermine democratic trust.

Stay Informed and Get Involved

We invite you to subscribe to our weekly updates as we continue to offer an analysis of the digital environment leading up to the 2026 elections. Your perspective is vital to our research; if you have feedback on this analysis, or if there are specific local narratives or actors you believe require closer scrutiny, please send us your suggestions and follow-up questions. The first small steps towards building a more resilient and informed public square.

Contact us at: brod@gate-ai.eu

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