ROMANIAN ELECTIONS: First results

The winner of the first round of Romanian presidential elections was a huge surprise even for close observers of the political landscape. Călin Georgescu, a lesser-known, peripheral candidate who ran as an independent, was dismissed as a minor contender due
to his low profile and far-right, pro-Russian messaging (which predates this campaign and was notably absent during it), defeated the long-standing favorite candidate of the largest Romanian party, after a campaign where he was quasi-absent from traditional
media.
Experts now point to two simplified explanations for his success: his strategic use of social media, particularly TikTok, to generate engagement and amplify his simplistic, nationalistic, and emotional messages, and the widespread disillusionment of the
Romanian electorate with establishment candidates, which drove voters to embrace a fresh face, amid a backdrop marked by the escalating violent exchanges between the presidential candidates of Romania's two main parties, who simultaneously form a
governing coalition.

While these explanations are valid and account for part of his success, they fail to fully capture the scale of this phenomenon. Surveys tracking his rise detected it gradually only in recent weeks, capping his support at around 10%, a level aligned with the arguments above but far from the final voting outcome, which exceeded 22%! The argument that Romanians sought a populist outlet for their anti-establishment frustrations definitely holds merit. However, such a candidate already existed; he was considered the favorite for the 2nd place during the later stages of the campaign, polling between 15-20%, backed by a well-organized party with national and local
structures, MPs, and MEPs.

This discrepancy between predicted outcomes and this result has led reasonable analyses to consider the possibility of foul play by a foreign actor (Russia, most likely) or another form of interference operation to produce such an anomalous result. Electoral phenomena of this magnitude are rarely spontaneous; they are typically preceded by warning signs detectable through sociological methods or online
and social media monitoring. The speed and precision of this surge defy explanation based solely on existing preconditions or trends.
At the same time, trust in Russia among Romanians has remained below 10% in recent years, with an overwhelming majority supporting the country’s pro-Western trajectory. Such a sudden widespread support for one of the few political figures associated with some pro-Russian sympathies appears inconsistent with this long standing orientation.