Moldova after the elections - 5th November 2024
Published Tuesday 5 November 2024 at 16:07
After a truly eventful day of voting, the final result of the second round of the presidential elections are in: 55.35% of voters, which translates to 930 139 votes, have opted for Maia Sandu, while Alexandr Stoianoglo was voted by 750430 people, amounting to 44.65%. If you have watched the results live, you may remember how, in the first couple of hours, Stoianoglo was in the lead and around 23:00, the candidates were tied. In the following hours, Sandu received more and more votes and her advantage increased. If you were to check how the Moldovans abroad voted, you’ll see an impressive 82.92% going to Sandu. In the Republic of Moldova, Stoianoglo had a small advantage at the end of the count, with 51.34% of the votes, as opposed to Sandu’s 48.66%. In total, 1 699 945 Moldovan cast their votes last Sunday (54.34 % of the eligible population). The most represented age group was 36-45, with more than a fifth of voters coming from this demographic. More than half of the 18-25 year-olds cast their ballots on November 3rd. You can find more data related to each of the country’s district on the dedicated webpage of the Central Electoral Commission.
Maia Sandu emphasized the need to address the vulnerabilities in Moldova's democracy and institutions highlighted by recent elections. She stressed the importance of accelerating judicial reforms and the fight against corruption, acknowledging that the current pace is insufficient. Sandu promised a broad societal discussion and swift results to strengthen the country and prepare for next year's parliamentary elections. She also committed to being a president for all citizens, regardless of their voting choices.
Today, the decision of the Constitutional Court regarding the validation of the results of the constitutional referendum held on October 20, 2024, has been published in the Official Gazette, thus coming into force. As a result, the Constitution of the Republic of Moldova will include a new chapter entitled EU Integration.
After Sunday's runoff, citizens expect the re-elected president to fight corruption, implement reforms, and improve living standards. Many voters expressed gratitude to the diaspora for their decisive votes. They hope for a European future with civilized society, rules, and rights. Some highlighted the significant impact of the diaspora and the need for independence from Russian interference. Others noted the challenges faced in regions with opposing votes. Overall, people expect the president to take decisive actions in economic, social, and judicial reforms, improve the economy, lower gas prices, and increase pensions. They also want to see justice served and oligarchs held accountable.
Igor Dodon criticized Maia Sandu, claiming that citizens in her homeland have lost trust in her, rendering her ineffective. He alleged that the Moldovan state exerted pressure, with opposition politicians being regularly searched, detained, and subjected to criminal investigations, while many media outlets were shut down. Former president Dodon also called Sandu a “lame duck”, perhaps hinting towards a societal shift for next year’s parliamentary elections.
Stoianoglo stayed mainly silent in the last couple of days, with the exception of a press conference Sunday evening. Nonetheless, voices point out that this is not the last time we’ll hear from him. Stoianoglo, backed by socialists, is seen as courageous and sensible, qualities that endeared him to his supporters. His campaign portrayed him as balanced and determined, even when his debate performance was criticized. Opposition channels and anti-Sandu factions continue to support him, valuing his perceived good relations with Russia for economic benefits. Stoianoglo denies any wrongdoing despite his long-standing relationship with Ilan Șor. His recent pro-EU stance and the upcoming challenges will test his ability to lead Moldova’s opposition and its ties with Moscow.
We have provided news stories documenting fraud attempts linked to Russian meddling in the elections. Perhaps the most poignant are the bomb threats on Sunday, covering Moldova, Romania and a number of cities in Western Europe. German outlets decried massive attempt to pressure the pro-EU Moldovans voting abroad to cast their ballots and linked these threats to Russian interference. Vote buying was the biggest issue in the recent presidential elections in Moldova, stated the Government’s spokesperson. The results of the second round could have been different without electoral corruption. Law enforcement is investigating these cases, including air and ground transport
Țargrad TV, owned by oligarch Konstantin Malofeev, accused Maia Sandu of massive fraud in Moldova’s presidential elections, claiming she and Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu announced the results prematurely. The channel alleged that Sandu’s victory was celebrated before the final vote count and that the diaspora’s votes from Europe and the US decided the election, overshadowing her loss within Moldova. They also criticized the limited voting facilities in Russia compared to Italy, suggesting this disenfranchised pro-Russian voters. Despite these claims, no evidence was provided to support the allegations of fraud.
The election was efficient and mostly transparent, allowing candidates to campaign freely. However, international observers noted a negative tone due to voter bribery attempts, illicit funding, and Russian interference. Authorities were urged to combat these issues more effectively. Despite efforts to address electoral corruption, concerns remain about the long-term impact of systematic voter bribery, foreign influence, and illicit party funding. Observers from ENEMO and OSCE highlighted organized voter transportation, ballot photographing, and administrative resource misuse. Hate speech and xenophobic language were also reported. Despite these challenges, the election was seen as a positive step for Moldova’s democracy, with final observation reports and recommendations to follow.
Russia invested significantly in the Moldovan elections, not to support the pro-Russian candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo or oligarch Ilan Șor, but to open a new front against Ukraine in the Odesa region using Transnistria as a diversion. Another goal was to destabilize Moldova and prepare for a pro-Russian victory in next year’s parliamentary elections, according to expert Armand Goșu. Stoianoglo’s success would have paved the way for pro-Russian parties to govern and hindered Moldova’s European path. Voter turnout was higher than four years ago, with 1,699,000 voters, nearly 54.5%. Sandu’s victory is remarkable given the pandemic and the war at the border. Russia hopes Moldova fails in its European path to avoid setting a successful precedent in the former Soviet space.
We have monitored the information space in the Republic of Moldova and here are the highlights:
Regarding the monitoring of narratives disseminated by untrusted sources, the most prevalent narrative disseminated between the 1st and the 3rd of November was that of election fraud. Perceptions of a hostile European Union and an exploitative West were also co-occurent with injustices towards Moldovans being perpetrated by the West and the government. Another narrative disseminated perceptions of the LGBTQ community threatening Moldovan society by being forcefully imposed by the West using both satire and the motive of traditional values being under threat.
The most notable spikes in the hourly frequency of election fraud narratives were recorded during election day. While narratives alleging electoral fraud regarding the referendum were still present during this timeframe, the monitored narratives expressed in Russian were higher in number, but the ones expressed in Romanian exhibited higher audience interaction rates.
These characteristics were also observed in the narratives portraying a foreign backed Sandu government committing electoral fraud in the presidential election, with narratives in Romanian receiving more audience interaction than ones in Russian. One key characteristic exhibited by a considerable number of narratives is the co-occurrence of two or several themes, building a network of context-specific intersubjective perceptions of vital threats to Moldovans. These strategies build towards deepening societal vulnerabilities to information disorder phenomena, optimizing audience priming.
See the graphs below for more details:
This newsletter is part of our ongoing work with the Bulgarian-Romanian Observatory of Digital Media, member of EDMO.
