Republic of Moldova before elections - 16th October, 2024

With only four days left until the elections, electoral debates are the talk of the town. We will do our best to provide you with insights, together with the corresponding debunking of statements made by the candidates, courtesy of the Stop Fals team. Today, one electoral show is set to feature the top three highest rated candidates, Maia Sandu, Alexandr Stoianoglo and Renato Usatîi.

While polls present Sandu ahead, a false story about her possible defeat was shared as an op-ed piece. Titled Should we expect an “orange revolution” if Sandu is defeated?, it plats the seed for a conspiracy on election fraud orchestrated by the incumbent president: “Convinced followers of the president, of course, can blindly believe in anything, but sociology and the corresponding indicators cannot be ignored – unless there are plans to massively falsify the election results”, as the author puts it. It also decries “journalistic investigations” published in the few days that try to highlight connections between other candidates and Kremlin, in order to delegitimise them, and the looming threat of abusively removing candidates from the ballot right before the elections by the Central Electoral Commission. The piece ends with a warning about leaders who don’t end up well because they have divided the society and a reinforcement of the claim that the election results will be tampered with. It is important to note that such “elections will be stolen” narratives have been accompanying elections on a world-wide scale and Moldova is no exception.

According to a recent survey conducted by Intellect Group, approximately 44% of Moldovans are determined to vote "yes" in the upcoming referendum on Moldova's accession to the European Union. The survey also revealed that 31% would vote against, 10.2% are undecided, and 1.8% plan to spoil their ballots.

A false claim has circulated on Telegram and on online pages known to propagate false information: a so-called decree of the Ministry of Education implies teachers are obliged to “go to the polls, support Maia Sandu and report to their immediate superiors by noon on October 21”. The Ministry has firmly denied issuing any such order and has reminded citizens to be cautious about the sources of their information to avoid falling for misinformation. In a campaign ripe with disinformation, we are nonetheless surprised to see a ministry being impersonated and dragged into the electoral race.

As a response to investigations exposing the pro-Russian networks operating in Moldova, a former respected journalist, Gabriel Călin, who has spent the last few years promoting Ilan Şor’s party, has published his own “investigation” on Viorica Dragalin, head of the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office. It claims that, after Dragalin was appointed, her family purchased a luxurious villa worth over 1.7 million dollars. Călin claims that Dragalin’s mother would not be able to afford such a residence given her declared income. He also refers to Veronica Dragalin’s father, who works at Johnson & Johnson, and claims that through connections with the state leadership (Maia Sandu), he sold vaccines to Moldova that were considered deadly in the USA and were banned. The investigation was widely circulated on Telegram.

An emotional news report was framed and shared as proof of the cruelty of PAS supporters and Sandu. The report demonizes the authorities, who conducted searches on a woman with cancer who allegedly received money from her children in Russia for treatment, but was treated as the money was meant for electoral bribery. The controversial activist Vasile Costiuc shared a report from Cinema 1 television, controlled by Ilan Șor, linking this story with searches conducted at several offices of the “Victory” Political Bloc. Costius claims Sandu has no respct for the sick and elderly and is thus unworthy of the people’s vote.

An analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) made headlines today. While the results aren’t surprising to anyone familiar with how disinformation works in Moldova, it highlights several strategies that the Kremlin is employing to reassert its influence. These strategies include attempts to destabilize Moldova's democratic processes and hinder its path towards European integration. The ISW notes that while the threat of a direct Russian invasion through Ukraine is currently low, the situation could change, allowing Russia to occupy more of Moldova. The Kremlin's efforts involve leveraging political, economic, and military ties with regions like Transnistria and Gagauzia, and using disinformation campaigns to influence public opinion and decision-making within Moldova and the EU. It also points out that Russia's actions in Moldova are part of a broader strategy similar to its approach in Ukraine, aiming to maintain control over its perceived sphere of influence.

Similarly, according to the U.S. National Security Council, Russia is actively working to undermine the elections in Moldova and its European integration efforts. John Kirby, the spokesperson for the Council, stated that in recent months, Russia has allocated millions of dollars to influence Moldova's presidential elections. This funding is reportedly used to support favoured political parties and spread disinformation on social media, by sponsoring so-called CSOs to promote Kremlin-friendly narratives. One name featured in the article is that of Ilan Şor, who is at this point synonymous for disinformation.

This newsletter is part of our ongoing work with the Bulgarian-Romanian Observatory of Digital Media, member of EDMO