Republic of Moldova before elections - October 1-3 2024

Introduction:  

We have entered the electoral month of 2024! As Maia Sandu’s four-year term as President of Moldova is coming to an end, elections have been scheduled for October 20. In addition to voting on the next president, the citizens will also have a say on Moldova's EU ascension, as per a referendum announced by Maia Sandu in late 2023. In May 2024, the Parliament voted on the matter and decided for a joint date. 

Both the presidential election and the referendum have been linked to a spike in false narratives – you can find essential information in the next paragraphs.  

Presidential elections 

While the incumbent president, Maia Sandu (PAS), who is running for a second term, centred around ascension to the European Union, has the lead in opinion polls, it is worth looking into her main competitors. These are Alexandr Stoianoglo (PS) and Renato Usatîi (Partidul Nostru)  - the former general prosecutor Stoianoglo, endorsed by ex-president Dodon and an “apolitical choice”, runs on a justice-heavy platform, while Usatîi aspires to “unite” the society beyond the current East or West banter. You can read brief descriptions of all candidates and their platforms here.  

As far as the disinformation effort go, Sandu is the main target. Some of the latest narratives meant to compromise her and deter the citizens from electing her for a second term circulate the claim that Sandu plans to legalize prostitution and same-sex marriage. Sandu is accused of “massive pressure using hybrid methods” in her crusade to solve the Transnistrian issue in the near future as a sign of her political power, with little care or respect for the wishes of the people. Moreover, Maia Sandu might just agree to thrust the country in war, because her Western allies demand it. As if this wasn’t enough, to ensure a “fraudulent victory”, Sandu and her government limit the number of polling stations in the Russian Federation, knowing fully well that the voters there are “immune to bribery”, unlike the Romanian-speaking electorate. Note that these narratives are circulated in Russian, for a Russian-speaking audience.  

You can find a brief visual overview of disinformation trends related to the highest-ranking presidential candidates at the end of this newsletter, using Gerulata, a social media listening tool, for the week of September 23-29. 

In the coming weeks, 11 electoral debates will take place in the Republic of Moldova, nine in the first round and two in the second, where the FactFrontier Coalition Romania-Moldova, led by Funky Citizens with support from Transparency International Moldova and the Association of Independent Press Moldova, has been invited to fact-check the candidates' statements in real-time. The first debate in the Republic of Moldova, subjected to a live fact-checking session, will take place on Monday, October 7, at 19:00 on the online platforms of the public television station Moldova 1. 

The referendum 

Coordinated campaigns to discredit the referendum have been gaining more and more traction in the last few months; some are based on or adapted from former narratives aimed at generally discrediting the West and the EU, the difference being that now the so-called threat is tangible. Since the beginning of this month, the following trends were observed and debunked: 

• Moldova as a future “semi-colony" of the EU: Alexandr Nesterovschi, affiliated with the fugitive oligarch Ilan Șor, launched false claims about the consequences of the referendum to amend the Constitution: "Amendments will be included in the Constitution according to which EU laws will prevail over the laws and Constitution of the Republic of Moldova. Thus, we turn into a semi-colony. This is the most important and the most serious. We are losing our independence!" 

• Moldova for sale: many online accounts, including, but not limited to, Igor Dodon, Bogdan Ţirdea and Blocul Victorie, led by the fugitive oligarch Ilan Şor, claim that if the Republic of Moldova joins the European Union, foreigners will buy all the land: "Moldova will be sold to the Europeans piece by piece. The hyenas in the European Union no longer hide the fact that, once our country joins the EU, its lands will be bought for nothing by foreigners", posts Şor.  

If you are curious to see some of the unexpected effects of the referendum, read how the enemy of my enemy is my friend: the socialists, communists and representatives of the Ilan Şor’s Victory Bloc, promote the same ideas, according to which, following the referendum, any changes could be introduced in the Constitution capable of "bringing us war" and causing the "disappearance" of R. Moldova.  This is nothing new: these politicians frequently spread false and speculative information about the referendum on the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the EU. Thus, this March, in Comrat, PCRM representatives distributed leaflets with the statement that holding the referendum would be illegal. In June, entities affiliated with Șor launched the anti-EU and anti-referendum disinformation campaign Stop EU Moldova. Last but not least, in September, a new Nu Acum (Not now!) disinformation campaign started, it was launched through the website Nuacum.eu, claiming that Moldova is “not ready yet” for the EU membership, since it has its own domestic issues to tackle first.  

This newsletter is part of our ongoing work with the Bulgarian-Romanian Observatory of Digital Media, member of EDMO.