The Impact of Disinformation and Public Opinion Influence Campaigns is Increasing in the Republic of Moldova

The survey was authorized by the Central Electoral Commission through Decision no. 2719 from 20.08.2024.

The results of the survey conducted by CBS Research, commissioned by the "WatchDog.MD" Community, indicate that a significant number of respondents still believe that our country is heading in the right direction. 41% stated this, compared to 41.1% in April 2024. On the other hand, there has been a slight increase in the number of those who believe that the Republic of Moldova is moving in the wrong direction—46% compared to 45% in April this year. However, multi-year measurements show that the number of those who believe the country is heading in the wrong direction is the lowest in the last nine years.

In the survey, respondents were asked about their views on Moldova's foreign policy options. When asked if they would support Moldova's accession to the Eurasian Economic Union, 33.7% said they would vote for it. This is a slight decrease from 34.8% in the April survey. The number of opponents of joining this Russia-controlled structure increased by over two percentage points—45.9% in August compared to 43.7% in April.

When asked whether they would vote for Moldova's accession to the European Union or the Eurasian Union, 52.6% chose the EU, and 28.1% chose the Eurasian Union. In the April survey, 53.9% opted for the EU, and 25.3% for the Eurasian Union. The number of supporters of Moldova's NATO membership also dropped significantly—from 34% in April to 29.5% in August. Conversely, the number of opponents increased from 47.5% to 53.8%. 38.5% of respondents support the union of Moldova with Romania, while 49.9% are against it.

We are witnessing a growing impact of massive disinformation campaigns and public opinion influence efforts on the evolution of the population's geopolitical preferences. These trends could strongly influence the outcomes of the elections this fall. Particularly concerning is the concentration of hostile propaganda efforts on topics related to Moldova's accession to the EU and cooperation with Western countries. At the same time, the number of citizens who would support joining the Eurasian Union is also decreasing when asked to choose between "for" or "against." We observe a certain polarization, with fewer people supporting both options. This is a somewhat natural trend, given the intensified debate on strategic foreign policy options. Information campaigns about the EU also have an impact, although it is limited by the intense disinformation and manipulation about the alleged benefits of closer ties with Russia.

The survey was organized as part of the project "Maintaining the Resilience of Democratic Institutions in the Republic of Moldova," implemented by the "WatchDog.MD" Community with the support of the Open Society Foundation. The results and conclusions do not represent the donor's position.

Further results will be published in subsequent press releases.

Research Methodology:

• Sample size: 1,011 individuals aged 18 and above
• Sample: stratified, probabilistic, two-stage
• Survey type: interviewer-moderated phone interviews (CATI)
• Representativeness: the sample is representative of the adult population of the Republic of Moldova, with a maximum margin of error of ±2.6%
• Data collection period: August 20-23, 2024. The questionnaire was available in both Romanian and Russian, allowing respondents to choose the language.

Following an analysis of the obtained sample structure, it was found that the population distribution obtained from available statistical data was consistent with the survey results, within allowable statistical deviations. A discrepancy was noted in gender distribution, with females being overrepresented, and in age groups, with young people (18-29 years) being underrepresented. The main reason for these deviations is the phenomenon of labor migration abroad.

To correct this, results were weighted so that the sample structure reflects the average between the official statistical distribution and the data obtained in the field. Thus, the presented results are weighted.