The majority of the inhabitants of the Republic of Moldova support the country's accession to the EU and wish to participate in the referendum

Authorized survey by the Central Electoral Commission through CEC Decision no. 2850 of 12.09.2024.

The percentage of citizens opting for the European trajectory of the Republic of Moldova increased from 57% in April 2024 to 63% in September 2024. This is one of the conclusions of the most recent public opinion survey conducted by the CBS-Axa Center for Sociological and Marketing Investigations, at the request of the Aspen Institute Romania, the Foreign Policy Association APE, and the WatchDog.MD Community.

Infographic 1: 63% of Moldovan citizens support the Republic of Moldova's integration into the EU.

The inhabitants of the Republic of Moldova believe that the group opposing the country’s EU integration process is in the minority. When asked if the majority of the population in Moldova currently supports or opposes the country's accession to the EU, almost 53% believe that the majority supports it, 33% think it does not, and another 15% are not entirely convinced.

Infographic 2: More than half of the population of the Republic of Moldova is aware that those who oppose European integration are in the minority.

An interesting observation is the difference between the number of people who support EU integration and the number of those who believe that the majority of the population supports this decision. This paradox persists despite the fact that absolutely all published surveys show a majority support for the European trajectory. This is one of the effects of disinformation and manipulation campaigns. Thus, only 75% of those who support EU accession believe that the majority of Moldovans support it. In contrast, 65% of those who oppose the EU believe they are the majority. However, some progress has been made in this regard. For example, in May, only 70% of pro-Europeans were aware that they represented a majority.

The intention to participate in the constitutional referendum on October 20 and the presidential elections has increased. Most Moldovans demonstrate resilience against the numerous falsehoods and manipulations intended to demotivate them from participating in the referendum. The majority are determined to vote to decide the country’s long-term strategic development goal.

If in August around 66% of respondents said they would vote in both the presidential election and the referendum, and about 10% were undecided, in September, the number of undecided voters decreased by 3.5%. Participation in the referendum and presidential election increased by 2%, and similarly, the percentage of those who declare they will only participate in the presidential election also increased by around the same percentage.

Infographic 3: The intention to participate in the constitutional referendum on October 20 and the presidential elections has increased.

However, this trend must be correlated with the increasingly toxic information space, which is perceived by half of Moldova's inhabitants as an impediment to the country’s progress.

Infographic 4: More than half of the citizens of the Republic of Moldova believe that disinformation and manipulation of public opinion by external actors significantly contribute to the country’s regression.

One of the toxic messages used by opponents of the referendum to divide society suggests that the diaspora should not have the right to participate in the referendum.

We note that this not only seriously infringes on the right of any citizen of the Republic of Moldova to participate in the country’s elections, but it is also a statement not supported by over 60% of the country’s inhabitants.

Infographic 5: Six out of ten people believe that the diaspora's right to participate in the referendum should not be violated.

Last but not least, certain political leaders insinuate that the constitutional referendum is irrelevant to the European integration process, urging people not to express their opinion. However, the September survey data show that despite the lies, 69% of Moldovans believe that the October 20, 2024 referendum is an important step for the EU accession process, which must be taken now to avoid missing this historic opportunity.

Infographic 6: Despite disinformation, 69% of the population of the Republic of Moldova state that the constitutional referendum matters for EU integration.

Substantial support for the country’s European trajectory is primarily pragmatic. Six out of ten Moldovans are aware that the Republic of Moldova does not have the resources to build prosperity without external support.

Infographic 7: About 64% of respondents in a recent survey are aware that without external financial support, the Republic cannot become a prosperous country.

Research Methodology:

• Sample size: 1021 people aged 18 and over;
• Sample: stratified, probabilistic, two-stage;
• Survey type: telephone interview moderated by an interviewer (CATI);
• Representativeness: the sample is representative of the adult population of the Republic of Moldova, with a maximum error of ±3.1%;
• Data collection period: September 13 – 22, 2024. The questionnaire was available in Romanian and Russian, allowing respondents to choose the interview language.
• The sample includes only residents of the Republic of Moldova at the time of the telephone interview.
• The survey was organized as part of the project “Defining and Countering Anti-Western Narratives in the Republic of Moldova,” implemented by the ASPEN Institute Romania in partnership with the Foreign Policy Association and the "WatchDog.MD" Community, with financial support from the Black Sea Trust of the German Marshall Fund.

The conclusions in this material do not necessarily represent the donor’s position and are solely the responsibility of the authors.

Author: Watchdog.md