At the beginning of 2026: Prebunking narratives in Bulgaria

In 2026, Bulgaria will hold a series of elections - early parliamentary elections and regular presidential elections. The dates are not yet known, but from now on, we can say what narratives may emerge, and this initial list can serve as a step towards disarming them or, in other words, as a prebunking tool.

The narratives that we could expect to emerge during the year are often well-known. Here we use previous fact-checks and narrative reports, made mainly by EDMO and its hubs, and by other approved fact-checking organizations.

Foreign interference and election legitimacy

Narrative 1: "The protests were orchestrated by foreign intelligence services to destabilize Bulgaria"

Drawing from Romania's recent experience, where authentic concerns about electoral integrity were weaponized, expect narratives claiming external manipulation of the genuine protest movement. Both pro-government and opposition camps may deploy variations: pro-government actors might claim Western interference, while others may allege Russian orchestration.[1] This mirrors the pattern where "the distrust people have towards traditional media and fact-checkers gets exploited by misinformation actors who portray debunking efforts as censorship or bias".[2]

Narrative 2: "Electronic voting systems will be manipulated"

Following Romania's 85,000 cyberattacks on electoral systems during their November 2024 election, expect amplified fears about voting infrastructure security[3]. Narratives will likely claim that specific political factions have compromised electronic voting systems, regardless of actual vulnerabilities[4]. (This narrative has already come true, leading to an urgent change in the electoral code.) Traditionally, Bulgaria has a so-called paper coalition - parties that prefer paper votes. New manifestations of this old trend can be expected.

Narrative 3: The elections are manipulated by foreign governments/organizations 

As a continuation of the previous narrative about the manipulation of the vote itself, as well as the appropriation of the protest by a certain political party, the narrative of foreign interference[5] also appears.[6]

Narrative 4: "The Constitutional Court will annul elections like in Romania"

The Romanian precedent of annulling presidential elections creates a ready-made template for delegitimizing results[7]. Expect preemptive claims that unfavorable outcomes will be overturned by judicial elites, or conversely, calls to annul elections based on unsubstantiated claims of foreign interference claims.[8]

Narrative 5: “Fake polls" as weapons of voter suppression & manipulation”

A notable number of false stories during the 2023 elections in Europe focused on the dissemination of fake polls, apparently designed to influence voting decisions, or false stories about voting procedures, seemingly designed to trick people into casting their ballots differently.[9]

Anti-EU and sovereignty

Narrative 6: "Brussels is dictating who can run for office and punishing patriotic candidates"

Building on widespread anti-EU sentiment documented in both Bulgaria and Romania, disinformation actors will frame any electoral regulations or candidate disqualifications as EU interference. The narrative that "the EU is making Bulgaria lose its independence"[10] and that the country should "leave all the alliances Bulgaria has fought hard to join"[11] will intensify around both elections. In addition to these narratives, the claim that “Brussels operates a ‘Ministry of Truth’ to censor dissent” could appear.[12]

Narrative 7: “We adopted the euro, so that Brussels can control us”

Bulgaria's euro adoption was described by political figures and supporters as "annexation", claiming the European Commission's decision was "against the will of the people" and comparing it to British Empire colonization mechanisms[13]. The narrative frames the EU as a "coloniser" that has become a "totalitarian regime stripping Bulgaria of its independence".[14]

Narrative 8: "Elites are puppets on strings guided by foreign interests"

Nationalistic parties traditionally "strongly rely on anti-elitist narratives against the foreign powers that govern Bulgaria (Brussels, Washington)".[15],[16]

Narrative 9: “The EU’s downfall is imminent”

Strongly intertwined with the narrative of the euro as part of annexation and colonization is the narrative of the decline and ruin of the EU, with the belief that Bulgaria will also be dragged down by the entire destabilization of the European Union[17].

Pro-Russian and Ukraine-related narratives

Narrative 10: "Sanctions against Russia hurt Bulgaria"

Extensively documented narrative in the past is "Sanctions hurt the West more than Russia" and specifically "sanctions are harmful for Bulgaria's national security and energy sector".[18]

Narrative 11: "Presidential/parliamentary candidates are NATO/EU warmongers pushing Bulgaria into conflict"

Given Bulgaria's position as "one of the regions most exposed to foreign information manipulation"[19], pro-Russian narratives will portray specific candidates as threatening Bulgarian neutrality or planning military involvement in Ukraine.[20] This mirrors the broader pattern where "pro-Russian narratives portray the West as a threat to sovereignty".[21]

Corruption and oligarch-related narratives

Narrative 12: "The protests were orchestrated by rival oligarchs/political and/or economic actors, not genuine citizens"

One of the expected narratives is that the protests in Bulgaria were organized by oligarchs[22], not by citizens, and could be popular during the election campaign, in the motivations of individual politicians, in order to downplay the role of citizens.
 

Narrative 13: "All candidates are equally corrupt; voting is meaningless"

Designed to suppress turnout, these narratives exploit genuine frustration with Bulgaria's "web of subservient media outlets" and oligarchic control.[23] This voter demobilization strategy was documented as a key goal in 2024 European Parliament elections.

Narrative 14: "Fact-checkers and media monitoring are tools of censorship protecting corrupt elites"

As documented in Romania, expect intensified attacks on fact-checking organizations like Factcheck.bg and EDMO/BROD, portraying them as partisan actors suppressing "truth" about corruption.[24] [25] Meanwhile, Bulgaria is again "at the bottom of EU countries ranking in the Media Literacy Index".[26]

Domestic political narratives

Narrative 15: "TikTok and social media platforms are being manipulated to promote specific candidates"

The Romanian TikTok scandal involving Călin Georgescu provides a template for both legitimate concerns and conspiratorial narratives about social media manipulation.[27],[28] Claims that any successful candidate benefited from undisclosed algorithmic promotion or bot networks are expected.

Identity and social division narratives

Narrative 16: " If pro-EU candidates win, EU integration deals (Schengen, Migration Pact) will force Bulgaria to accept thousands of refugees and build new camps“

Part of the broader European pattern targeting "emotionally charged themes such as immigration"[29], [30], these narratives will link electoral outcomes to migration policy, despite Bulgaria's relatively low refugee numbers.

Narrative 17: "Bulgarian history/identity/traditional values are under attack/will be assimilated by Western liberalism"

Documented as a home-grown disinformation theme involving "misrepresentation of national history"[31],[32] expect intensified narratives claiming specific candidates threaten Bulgarian Orthodox values, traditional family structures, or national identity.

[1] https://edmo.eu/publications/the-authoritarian-playbook-how-governments-in-georgia-slovakia-and-serbia-employ-similar-disinformation-narratives-and-tacticls-against-protests/

[2] https://edmo.eu/publications/republic-of-moldova-before-elections-14th-october-2024/ 

[3] https://edmo.eu/edmo-news/romanias-elections-overview-4-may-2025/

[4] https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/01/politics/election-deepfake-threats-invs

[5] https://edmo.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/EDMO-TF-Elections-disinformation-narratives-2023.pdf (p. 7)

[6] https://ec.europa.eu/newsroom/edmo/newsletter-archives/53752

[7] https://edmo.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/RO_4_ElectionsDisinfoBrief90.pdf

[8] https://edmo.eu/edmo-news/romania-on-election-day-4-hours-before-polls-close-18-may-2025/

[9] https://edmo.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/EDMO-TF-Elections-disinformation-narratives-2023.pdf

[10] https://edmo.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/EDMO-TF-Elections-disinformation-narratives-2023.pdf

[11] https://efcsn.com/news/2024-06-06_disinformation-on-the-european-elections-an-overview-of-what-is-circulating-in-europe/

[12] https://cadmus.eui.eu/server/api/core/bitstreams/85e69559-b144-43ee-9a9e-25ab7d941810/content (p. 32, Irish study summarized in footnote 58)

[13] https://www.kew.org.pl/en/2025/09/22/adopt-the-euro-so-that-brussels-can-control-us-bulgarias-accession-to-the-eurozone-and-the-radical-right/

[14] https://www.aubg.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Bulgaria-Working-Group-Report_April-2025_Mapping-Disinformation-Narratives-in-Bulgaria.pdf

[15] https://azbuki.bg/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/philosophy_3s_24_ralitsa-kovacheva.pdf

[16] https://factcheck.bg/en/this-is-the-kremlin-speaking-nato-and-the-usa-are-an-aggressor-and-evil-doer/

[17] https://edmo.eu/publications/overview-of-propaganda-and-false-narratives-circulating-on-november-30-and-december-1-on-social-media

[18] https://disinfo-fence.eu/a-pack-of-viral-lies-disinformation-narratives-about-ukraine-and-why-are-bulgarians-gobbling-them-down/

[19] https://factcheck.bg/en/politicheck-we-are-being-dragged-into-war-burned-bulgarians-in-odessa-and-more-false-statements-from-the-parliament/

[20] https://www.aubg.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Bulgaria-Working-Group-Report_April-2025_Mapping-Disinformation-Narratives-in-Bulgaria.pdf

[21] https://edmo.eu/publications/overview-of-propaganda-and-false-narratives-circulating-on-november-30-and-december-1-on-social-media/

[22] https://bntnews.bg/news/spor-v-parlamenta-borisov-mirchev-i-vasilev-si-razmeniha-ostri-repliki-1367216news.html

[23] https://www.techandciviclife.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Combating-Election-Misinformation-participant-guide.pdf (p.19)

[24] https://edmo.eu/edmo-news/one-thank-you-note-can-keep-you-motivated-for-months-brod-fact-checkers-and-their-take-on-disinformation-dynamics-in-bulgaria-and-romania/

[25] https://cadmus.eui.eu/server/api/core/bitstreams/85e69559-b144-43ee-9a9e-25ab7d941810/content (стр. 32, ирландското проучване е обобщено в бележка под линия 58)

[26] https://osis.bg/?p=5746&lang=en

[27] https://dsa-observatory.eu/2024/12/20/tiktok-and-the-romanian-elections/

[28] https://www.svobodnaevropa.bg/a/manipulatsii-tiktok-izbori-balgariya/33594813.html

[29] https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/12/10/fact-check-is-the-european-parliament-forcing-member-states-to-accept-irregular-migration

[30] https://sofiaglobe.com/2024/01/07/bulgarias-government-hits-out-at-fake-news-about-refugee-crisis-to-follow-schengen-admission/

[31] https://www.aubg.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Bulgaria-Working-Group-Report_April-2025_Mapping-Disinformation-Narratives-in-Bulgaria.pdf

[32] https://csd.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/publications_library/files/2025_09/Fractured_Mirror_EN_WEB.pdf