Inside the Facebook Feed Before Bulgaria’s 2026 Election: Narrative and Manipulation Pattern Mapping:  March 30 – April 5, 2026

Summary

This is the second edition of Narrative Atlas – a weekly analytical update of narratives within the Bulgarian information environment on Facebook - which focuses on the upcoming Bulgarian Parliamentary Elections, the eight rounds of national elections since 2021. Bulgaria’s political and informational environments continue to be characterised by widespread distrust and polarisation[1]. By offering these findings, it is our hope to contribute to a more holistic understanding of how election campaign narratives function and position themselves. In addition, by cataloguing and analysing these patterns, we believe we can aid in the larger work of slowly building societal resilience to false, misleading or manipulative information through education and online campaigns.

The Week 2 (March 30 – April 5, 2026) dataset reveals a sharp pivot from internal procedural issues to high-stakes geopolitical existentialism, where the signing of a 10-year security pact with Ukraine acts as a central catalyst for a dominant "National Treason" narrative.

This is coupled with the emergence of the "Romanian Variant," which frames the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' disinformation unit and figures like Hristo Grozev as instruments of "Brussels-led censorship" designed to subvert patriotic candidates before the April 19 vote.

Global conflicts are further weaponized through claims about secret Iranian diplomatic notes and the academic targeting of professors over Palestine and Gaza, both serving to portray the caretaker government as a servile foreign proxy.

Methodologically, the Regional Impact Multiplier highlights profound disillusionment and "survivalism" in areas like Ruse and Vidin, while an unexpected spiritualization of political despair via Tarot and Karma attempts to explain the cycle of repeated elections as a unavoidable "karmic program" for the nation.

Our research team at BROD, led by the GATE Institute, conducted a multidimensional analysis of last week’s public digital discourse. We analysed a sample dataset covering one week of public Facebook posts related to the Bulgarian elections, utilizing a methodology that anonymizes and aggregates data to identify shifts in narrative momentum and "snap-shot" intensifications. Our analysis focuses strictly on the rhetorical structures and dissemination patterns of these messages, ensuring that no private user data was utilized. The was facilitated by the Information Environments Research (IER) group at GATE and the team’s prototype PODIA project. A tool which facilitates critical discourse analysis of texts at scale.

While it is true that these findings represent a fragment of the information environment – given the subset of content which Meta allows researchers to download - we believe they demonstrate how these very specific narratives systematically exploit "cracks" in the institutional structure to replace rational policy discourse with an "analytical void," ultimately driving extreme societal polarization and eroding the public’s ability to make sense of the democratic process. A central and key aspect of the contemporary Bulgarian, and wider European, crisis of democracy.

What we looked at and how

Given that our research team has access to the Meta Content Library for research purposes, we examined public Facebook posts that were actively discussing the Bulgarian elections over a period of one week. The search was filtered by Bulgarian language content, downloadable public dataset, dates (March 30- April 5) and by a single keyword: избори (Elections). The resulting dataset for this period is 800 unique and cleaned posts.

Utilizing our proprietary analytical framework, we coded these posts to assess both the scale and potential harm scores of the narratives and to sort them into distinct narrative categories, including global geopolitics, regional local issues, and highly personal emotional stories. We wanted to offer a general overview of the information landscape in this specific digital space.

Within these categories, we identified common manipulation tactics and logical fallacies, specifically looking for "high-susceptibility" tricks that are empirically designed to be harder for the average reader to detect as biased.

To maintain the highest ethical standards, our research does not name private individuals and utilizes anonymized examples to illustrate its findings. Our analysis is designed to focus on broad rhetorical patterns and dissemination trends rather than singling out or identifying individual social media users.

The main storylines in the feed: Election Cycle Narrative Analysis: March 30 – April 5, 2026

The main storylines for Week 2 (March 30–April 5) reflect a sharp shift from internal procedural disputes to geopolitical existentialism and narratives of systemic betrayal. These storylines are divided into the following narrative themes:

1. Geopolitical Existentialism & "National Treason"

This is the most dominant theme of the week, triggered by the signing of a 10-year security agreement with Ukraine.

• The "Kyiv Treason": Caretaker PM Andrey Gyurov is accused of an "unconstitutional solo action" by signing a long-term defense pact without a regular mandate. Opponents frame this as "national treason" that will lead to "thousands of leaden coffins".
• The Iranian "Secret Note": Narrative actors claim the government suppressed an official note from Iran warning that US tanker planes at Sofia Airport were participating in strikes against Iran. Influencer Slavi Trifonov and others use this to create extreme urgency, claiming Iranian missiles could reach Sofia in 9 minutes.
• Axis of Resistance: Commentators argue that the US and Israel have been "convincingly defeated" by Iran and that the "Zionist coalition" is resorting to tactical nuclear threats out of desperation.

2. Institutional Sabotage & The "Censorship Padlock"

This theme focuses on the delegitimization of institutional oversight and the role of international actors in Bulgarian affairs.

• The "Romanian Variant": This narrative uses the invalidation of Călin Georgescu’s election in Romania as a warning that the "Brussels-Davos elite" will annul any Bulgarian result where "patriots" win.
• The MFA Censorship Unit: The inclusion of Hristo Grozev in a Ministry of Foreign Affairs unit to monitor disinformation is characterized as the start of an "intellectual dictatorship". Grozev is labeled a "foreign agent" and a "Hollywood bon vivant" linked to scandalous oligarchs.
• EU as Dictatorship: The EU is portrayed as a "suicidal" project and a "pink junta" that uses the Digital Services Act (DSA) to "monitor, limit, and remove" inconvenient political views.

3. The "Captured State" & Judicial Sabotage

This theme targets the integrity of the judicial and electoral process at both national and regional levels.

• Vidin & The "Eight Dwarfs": Civic group BOEC and influencer Georgi Borisov Georgiev frame the Roma neighborhood of "Nov Put" in Vidin as a laboratory for vote-buying controlled by Delyan Peevski. They link City Prosecutor Emilia Rusinova directly to the "Eight Dwarfs" criminal network.
• The "Commission" Car: Commentator Kevork Kevorkian reduces the entire political and economic process to a "Commission" brand car, implying that all political energy is driven by secret kickbacks rather than public service.
• "Caretaker Noise": Factual reports on police operations against vote-buying are weaponized to claim the state is a "smokescreen" where sanctioned oligarchs use "black boxes" in energy and transport to fund elections.

4. Social Fragmentation & Dehumanization

A sharp narrative has emerged that focuses on class-based dehumanization to drive societal split.

• "Kaufland Crowds" vs. The Elite: Electorate segments are labeled as "orcs" or "Kaufland crowds" who allegedly care only for promotions and toilet paper.
• The "Yellow-Pavement Plankton": Rural "survivalist" narratives contrast the "laboring man" in the provinces (e.g., "Bai Georgi" the shepherd) with the "urban elite" in Sofia, calling for the state's "house of cards" to be burned down.

5. Spiritualized Despair & Esoteric Bypassing

This unexpected theme attempts to explain political instability through non-rational means.

• Karmic Lessons: Tarot and esoteric readings frame the cycle of repeated elections as a "karmic program of the nation".
• Prophecy as Expertise: These narratives present spiritual insights (e.g., the "Celtic Cross" method) as more reliable than "official" experts who have "fallen silent" regarding the nation's future.

Digital Ripples: How the Stories Spread on Facebook

The spread of main narratives on Facebook during Week 2 (March 30-April 5) of the 2026 Bulgarian election cycle is characterized by a sophisticated interplay between high-reach influencers, coordinated algorithmic engagement, and the strategic exploitation of information voids within regional and niche silos.

1. Dissemination via Digital Megaphones and Influencers

Narratives typically originate or gain massive momentum through high-traffic public platforms and individuals with significant reach.

Major Political Actors: Figures like Boyko Borissov and Andrey Gyurov use their large followings to broadcast campaign slogans (e.g., "deeds, not words") and institutional reports, which are then amplified by partisan bases.

Media Personalities: Influencers such as Martin Karbovski, Slavi Trifonov, and Strahil Angelov serve as primary hubs for "Anti-Establishment" narratives, often framing geopolitical events like the Ukraine agreement as "National Treason".

Alternative Media Hubs: Platforms like BNews Bg, Kanal 3, and Kanal 4 utilize sensationalist formats to spread "Systemic Sabotage" stories, frequently linking to their own external sites to bypass platform moderation.

2. Algorithmic Engagement and "Yellow News" Aesthetics

To maximize visibility in Facebook feeds, narrative actors employ specific eye-catching formatting and engagement bait.

• Arresting Visuals: Frequent use of CAPS LOCK, sirens (🚨), and red exclamation marks (‼️) is a standard tactic to trigger engagement algorithms.
• Engagement Loops: Posts often use the "@everyone" (@всички) tag or instructions to find "Details in comments" (ПОДРОБНОСТИ В КОМЕНТАРИ) to artificially inflate reach and visibility. Coordinated Hashtags: Campaigns are structured around organized hashtags (e.g., #избори, #Възраждане, #ППДБ) and ballot numbers (e.g., #7, #15, #19, #21) to aid discoverability and track campaign efficacy.

3. Migration into Regional and Niche Silos

A critical pattern identified this week is the migration of national narratives into hyper-local and esoteric echo chambers where they are harder to cross-reference.

• Regional Hubs: National "Crisis of Authority" stories are adapted for regional audiences in Ruse, Vidin, and Plovdiv, where they are linked to local grievances like water shortages or transport fires.
• Monolingual Siloing: In minority or rural regions, narratives are often delivered in monolingual Bulgarian formats that target resource-poor groups, utilizing "common sense" appeals to bypass technical policy debate.
• Esoteric Bypassing: Unexpectedly, political despair is channeled through spiritual and Tarot pages, where the cycle of repeated elections is reframed as a "karmic program," effectively neutralizing rational political discourse.

4. Social Validation through Identity-Based Sharing

Narratives spread effectively because they allow users to express a specific political or social identity.

• Identity Expression: Sharing content—ranging from anti-corruption "schemes" to "patriotic" warnings about the EU—serves as a signal of belonging to a specific ideological camp.
• Representative Anecdotes: Emotional stories about single individuals (e.g., "Bai Georgi" or "Lelya Ginka") are shared widely because they provide a relatable human face to complex systemic failures, making them more persuasive than statistical data.

5. Exploiting the "Analytical Void"

When institutions are unstable, narrative actors fill the resulting information void with existential metaphors.

• The "Romanian Variant": This metaphor traveled across multiple hubs to seed fear that the "Brussels-Davos elite" would annul Bulgarian election results, just as happened with Călin Georgescu in Romania.
• "Censorship Padlocks": The establishment of a disinformation unit was rapidly framed as a "padlock on truth," transforming a policy action into a viral narrative of "intellectual dictatorship".

WEEK-ON-WEEK COMPARISON (W1 VS. W2)

Closing note and what comes next

Limitations of This Analysis

It is important to note that this report is based on a one-week "snap-shot" of data (March 30 – April 5, 2026) and focuses exclusively on publically available content from Facebook. While the methodology captured both mainstream discourse and radicalized sentiment, it does not account for private interactions or trends occurring on encrypted messaging apps or other social media platforms. Additionally, because the unit of analysis is individual social media posts, the findings reflect a specific moment in time during a highly volatile political cycle. Finally, while the analytical framework is rigorous, certain weights are calibrated specifically for the Bulgarian cultural and linguistic context and may vary when applied to other national environments.

What Comes Next

Our team plans to continue monitoring throughout the entire election period to identify long-term shifts in narrative momentum and further "snap-shot" intensifications as polling day approaches. We will be conducting a comparative analysis across a broader range of political actors to determine which specific framings are most effective at converting digital sentiment into offline actionability. Furthermore, we are in the process of developing educational materials and workshops based on our narrative and fallacy maps while developing our cognitive attack ontology. These tools are designed to help citizens and educators recognize "Detection Difficulty" in real-time, moving the focus from identifying "fake news" to understanding the deep rhetorical structures that undermine democratic trust.

Stay Informed and Get Involved

We invite you to subscribe to our weekly updates as we continue to offer an analysis of the digital environment leading up to the 2026 elections. Your perspective is vital to our research; if you have feedback on this analysis, or if there are specific local narratives or actors you believe require closer scrutiny, please send us your suggestions and follow-up questions. The first small steps towards building a more resilient and informed public square.

Contact us at: brod@gate-ai.eu

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[1] https://www.globsec.org/what-we-do/publications/public-attitudes-in-bulgaria-2025